At the start of 2022, many Linux commentators made bold predictions. Linux gaming would finally take off. Arch-based distributions would grow. Flatpak would beat Snap. Wayland would replace X11. More developers would use Linux every day.
Four years later, we can check the results. This article revisits five common Linux predictions for 2022 and explains what actually happened.
1. “Linux gaming gets big”
Verdict: largely true.
Valve released the Steam Deck in February 2022. It runs SteamOS 3, a Linux-based system, and uses Proton to run Windows games. As a result, thousands of Windows titles became playable on Linux without changes from developers. Linux’s share in Valve’s Steam hardware survey climbed above 2% in the following years, its highest level in a long time. Anti-cheat support from some vendors also improved, although a few popular multiplayer games still block Linux.
2. “A rise in Arch-based distributions”
Verdict: true.
SteamOS 3 is itself based on Arch Linux, which put Arch in the hands of millions of gamers. Meanwhile, user-friendly Arch-based distributions such as EndeavourOS, Manjaro and CachyOS gained popularity, especially among gamers and enthusiasts who want recent software. Arch remains a niche for servers, though, where Debian, Ubuntu and RHEL-compatible systems dominate.
3. “Flatpak vs Snap vs everything else”
Verdict: Flatpak mostly won on the desktop.
Flatpak, with the Flathub store, became the default way to install desktop apps on many distributions, including Fedora, Linux Mint and Pop!_OS. Snap remains central to Ubuntu, where Canonical continues to invest in it. AppImage still serves developers who want a single portable file. So the “format war” did not end with one winner, but Flatpak became the most widely accepted cross-distribution option.
4. “Wayland will win”
Verdict: true, though it took a few more years.
Fedora and Ubuntu already used Wayland by default for most users. Then KDE Plasma 6, released in February 2024, made Wayland its default session. GNOME has also moved to phase out its X11 session. NVIDIA driver support, a long-standing problem, improved greatly. X11 apps still run through XWayland, so most users barely notice the change.
5. “More developers using Linux”
Verdict: true, in more ways than expected.
Developers use Linux every day, even when their desktop is Windows or macOS. Containers, Kubernetes, cloud servers and CI pipelines all run on Linux. On Windows, WSL 2 gives developers a real Linux kernel inside their PC. As a result, Linux skills became even more important for software, DevOps and security jobs.
Scorecard
| Prediction | Outcome by 2026 |
|---|---|
| Linux gaming gets big | Yes, driven by Steam Deck and Proton |
| Arch-based distros rise | Yes, especially for gaming |
| Flatpak beats Snap | Mostly, outside Ubuntu |
| Wayland wins | Yes, now the default on major desktops |
| More developers use Linux | Yes, through cloud, containers and WSL |
What this means for you
If you are learning IT or security, Linux is no longer optional. Start with the basics in our guide to Linux fundamentals and basic commands, and test yourself with our Linux quiz.
Sources
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